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Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Michael Barone speaks of Republican electoral scenarios

There are a couple of troubling things. Here's one:
the preference for smaller rather than larger government is not as ample as it used to be (emphasis mine). The strongest case against big government has been its failures in the 1970s, typified by gas lines and stagflation. But the median-age voter in 2008 was born around 1964, so he or she never sat in those gas lines or struggled to pay rising bills with a paycheck eroded by inflation. That demographic factor helps explain why Democrats today are promising big-government programs, unlike Bill Clinton in 1992, when the median-age voter remembered the 1970s very well. America has enjoyed low-inflation economic growth for 95 percent of the 2008 median-age voter’s adult life. This is a record unique in history, which neither party is addressing particularly well. Democrats promise tax increases on at least some high earners (by not extending the Bush tax cuts past 2010), though tax increases are not the usual prescription for an economy that may be headed toward recession. Republicans, facing an electorate half of which doesn’t remember the 1970s and most of which has not appreciated the generally good economy we’ve had since 2001, have yet to muster persuasive arguments for their policies.

A great point: " You can write three or four scenarios for how the Democratic race will go; you can write 60 for the Republicans."

Also good: " Thompson, who led in Rasmussen’s national polls last summer, before he officially announced, is the closest to the Republican mold,"

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