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Monday, July 31, 2006

Congressman Schwarz is weak on the border (big surprise); that can only hurt him

Walberg Leads Schwarz: Michigan Incumbent Suffers from Liberal Voting Record

Excerpts reprinted with permission from Minateman PAC
Sunday, July 30, 2006

-- No good news for incumbent in Michigan-7 Survey.

Walberg leads Schwarz, 37-34

Incumbent Congressman Joe Schwarz trails his GOP primary opponent by 3 points in a new survey released today by Minuteman PAC, the political arm of the grassroots volunteer border security movement patrolling the US Borders.

Tim Walberg, a former State Representative who narrowly lost to Schwarz in 2004, leads the embattled incumbent by 37-34—a lead that expands to 41-34 with those definitely coming to the polls.

The results are encouraging and give hopes that Minuteman PAC activity in the next ten days will help Walberg solidify his lead.

“What we found out from our survey is that voters disagree strongly with Congressman Schwarz’s liberal views on immigration related issues such as ‘Guest Worker’ Amnesty for illegal aliens, multilingual election ballots, and allowing illegal aliens to be eligible for affirmative action and welfare,” explained Chris Simcox, Honorary Chairman of the Minuteman PAC.

Simcox said that Minuteman PAC plans to spend between $50,000 and $125,000 in the South Central Michigan district over the next two weeks on TV, radio and newspaper ads, phone banks and grassroots GOTV (“get-out-the-vote”) activities.

Just 33 percent of respondents said that Schwarz had done a good enough job to deserve reelection, while a 40 percent plurality said it was time for someone new. Overall, Congressman Schwarz has a favorable rating of 32 percent, an unfavorable rating of 21 percent with 12 percent mixed. 98 percent of respondents had heard of Schwarz. With definite voters, however, Schwarz’s favorable/unfavorable dips to 32-25, indicating that those unfavorable to him are more motivated to vote.

83 percent of all respondents had heard of Walberg and he has a favorable rating of 29 percent—just a few points below the incumbent, and an unfavorable rating of merely 9 percent. With conservatives, who make up 55 percent of all voters and 59 percent of those definitely coming out, Walberg is 43-3 favorable versus 26-27 for Schwarz.

Walberg leads conservatives 51-25. He is up 62-12 in Lenawee County and 56-19 in Hillsdale County. The candidates are tied 37-37 in Jackson County. Schwarz runs below 50 percent in his home county of Calhoun (46-33).

By a 17-52 margin, respondents are less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who supports having election ballots in both English and Spanish. Schwarz voted recently in support of an Amendment mandating multilingual ballots as part of the Voting Rights Act renewal.

By a 14-62 margin, voters are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports proposals allowing illegal aliens to remain in the country and eventually gain citizenship. It is 16-62 with undecided voters. Schwarz supports this agenda.

65 percent of all voters attend religious services weekly and Walberg leads by 45-27 among this group. Schwarz leads 44-22 with those who attend religious services “rarely” or never.

“Barring an unforeseen event in the final ten days, Walberg, poised with strong resources according to current FEC reports, is in an excellent position to win when the votes are counted,” concludes a memo to the PAC from the pollster.

In the U.S. Senate race, Mike Bouchard leads Keith Butler by 17-10 with 73 percent undecided.

METHODOLOGY:

Neighborhood Research completed 362 surveys from individuals who had voted in either the 2002 or 2004 Primaries and said their chances of voting in the August 8th Primary were “definite” or “very likely.” The theoretical margin of error for this survey is +/- 5.1% in 95% of cases. Surveys were completed between July 16 and July 18, 2006.

CONTACT: Brett Farley, Minuteman PAC (866) 407-4258

Rick Shaftan, Neighborhood Research (973) 726-8114

article from ChronWatch

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